My Self-Driving G-Wagon

Notes / 29 Oct 2026

A truck model learned from the G55's CAN predicts motion better

On 12 held-out drives a recurrent network learned from the truck's CAN data has a sideways error of 0.29 m after 4 s of free running, against 7.34 m for the hand-built model and 0.66 m for the same equations refit. It fails a stopping check, so the simulator's default stays hand-built.

29 Oct 2026. Measured on recorded G55 drives, with the test set scored once per candidate; exploratory, one truck configuration, no steering actuator.

What was asked

A simulator needs a model of how the truck moves when given steering, torque and brake. The existing hand-built model (bicycle-style equations with parameters set by hand) was wrong enough to matter, so the question was whether a model learned from the G55's own recorded CAN data would predict the truck's motion better, and whether it could then be used inside the closed-loop simulator (bench8) in place of the hand-built one.

The check came first. From a recorded moment the model gets 2 s of measured state, then only what a controller could command (steering-wheel angle, torque request, brake pedal, gear). It runs free for 4 s and is scored against what the truck did. The data is 102 driving sessions (36.5 h moving) split by evening. The test set is the 12 latest drives (9,704 rollouts), scored once per candidate.

What was done

Result

Mean absolute error after 4 s on the test drives [95 percent bootstrap within drives]:

ModelSideways (m)Heading (deg)Speed (m/s)
Hand-built7.34 [6.98, 7.67]11.63 [11.36, 11.91]0.91 [0.87, 0.95]
Hold speed and yaw rate1.47 [1.39, 1.57]5.69 [5.08, 6.36]1.47 [1.37, 1.57]
Same equations, refit0.66 [0.63, 0.69]1.70 [1.53, 1.88]0.76 [0.73, 0.80]
Learned network0.29 [0.28, 0.30]0.86 [0.77, 0.94]0.46 [0.44, 0.48]

What it does not show